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Netflix shares dropped 5.3% on Wednesday, ending at $65.04 on Nasdaq. That was the stock's lowest closing price since August 2024, after the company lowered its 2026 advertising revenue goal and forecast fourth-quarter sales below analysts' estimates.
The third-quarter results, published on Tuesday, showed earnings per share of $0.87 against a consensus of $0.82. Revenue reached $12.87 billion, in line with forecasts. The revised outlook took focus: Netflix now expects around $2.7 billion in advertising revenue for 2026, rather than roughly $3 billion, and sees fourth-quarter revenue at $13.44 billion, below the $13.51 billion analysts projected.
Price levels now under pressure
The session low was $64.10, a new 52-week trough. A chart-based analysis puts Wednesday's close just below $65.11, a price level that held during the July sell-off. The close also sat beneath a rising trend line traced from the 2022 low, which had supported the advance from 2023 through 2025.
Netflix is 51% below its June 2025 peak of $134.09. Its price is also under the 50-day exponential moving average at $72.92 and the 200-day EMA at $82.61. If the former trading range gives way, the analysis identifies a broad area extending down to $16.09, the 2022 low.
The nearer chart levels below Wednesday's $65.04 close are:
- $58.86, the August 2024 low, 9.5% lower.
- $54.41, the May 2024 low, 16.3% lower.
- $48.36, the July 2023 high, 25.6% lower.
- $16.09, the 2022 low, 75.3% lower.
Analysts revise targets and forecasts
The company's advertising outlook is a reversal from a year earlier, when it described its third-quarter ad sales as a record and expected ad revenue to more than double. Netflix also abandoned its agreed $72 billion purchase of Warner Bros. In February after Paramount Skydance submitted a higher offer.
The deepest downside case is presented as a scenario, not the base expectation. Netflix fell about 77% between its November 2021 high and May 2022 low, including a 35% single-day decline after it disclosed its first subscriber loss in a decade. By contrast, revenue in the third quarter of 2026 grew about 12% year on year. At $16.09, the shares would be valued at about 4.2 times the $3.79 per-share earnings analysts expect for 2027, against roughly 17 times at Wednesday's close.
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft, who has a Buy rating and a $93 target, viewed the sell-off as excessive, TheWrap reported. The lowest targets issued after the results are $65 from Barclays, which reduced its target from $70 and retained Equal Weight, and Decisive Research, whose year-end 2026 target was cut by $5. The median target is $88.26, around 36% above Wednesday's close. Finance Magnates also reported the target changes.
Most banks kept Buy ratings while lowering their price objectives: Bank of America moved to $90 from $105, Bernstein to $80 from $95, JPMorgan to $81 from $85, and Morgan Stanley to $77 from $80. Needham's Laura Martin downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy and withdrew her $120 target. She expects Peter Rice, appointed chief content officer in place of Bela Bajaria, to need about two years to address the roughly $20 billion content slate, with material write-offs before then, Benzinga reported. Martin also expects Netflix to lose ground to YouTube and forecast single-digit revenue growth in 2027.
Where this lands in the stack
The report describes a repricing and changes to company guidance, not a platform, venue or trading-system change. For dealing and risk teams, the immediate operational question is whether price alerts and monitoring reflect the levels now being watched, including $65.11 and the next cited support at $58.86. Any response should follow the firm's own exposure and risk controls.
The next chart test is the weekly close on Friday, 23 October. A close back above $65.11 would make Wednesday's move a false break in this analysis; a move above $70.45 would remove the bearish setup for now. If the weekly close remains below $65.11, the analysis puts $58.86 next. Operators should check which close or price feed their alerts use, and whether those thresholds match their monitoring rules.
