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S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) and Kalshi have signed a two-way data and licensing agreement that could bring prediction-market prices into new indices. The arrangement also allows Kalshi to offer event contracts settled against official S&P DJI values.
Two data paths, distinct roles
On one side, Kalshi would provide prices from its markets for S&P DJI to use in indices covering economic, political and sporting events. S&P DJI would apply its own index methodology to turn those prices into measures of market expectations.
The reverse route would let Kalshi list contracts connected to existing S&P DJI benchmarks. Customers would trade those contracts on Kalshi, with the official benchmark value setting the settlement outcome. S&P DJI would supply that reference value, but would not sponsor, sell or endorse the contracts.
Precedents do not settle scope
There are examples of both data flows in other products. Intercontinental Exchange has partnered with Polymarket on Polymarket Signals and Sentiment, a service that sends normalised probability feeds to professional investors. In June, Cboe introduced yes-or-no options tied to its Mini-S&P 500 Index, whose value determines the contracts' outcomes.
The two companies called one another preferred providers, but did not announce an exclusive deal. They have yet to identify the first index or contract, provide methodologies or set launch dates.
Cathy Clay, CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said strong benchmarks can establish how markets are measured and monitored as prediction markets develop. The agreement was reported by Finance Magnates.
What an operations team should check
For market-data teams, the first questions are what Kalshi price fields would be supplied, how frequently they would arrive and how S&P DJI would apply its methodology. The announcement does not identify the initial indices or explain how the data would be transformed, so those details will determine what needs to be mapped, tested and monitored.
For teams supporting Kalshi contracts, confirm how official index values will reach the settlement process and what operational rules will govern their use. Ask about the reference value's timing, corrections and reconciliation, as well as the contract terms and launch schedule. Those mechanics have not been specified.
