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Price recovery runs into resistance
XRP had fallen to $1.32 by 15 October 2026 after its recovery attempt stalled at $1.56. A technical analysis published on 17 September set $1.97 as a measured objective from a price near $1.30, with $1.46 and $1.56 identified as interim resistance.
The flag breakout followed days later and took XRP to $1.56, roughly 20% above its level at the time of the analysis. That ceiling had contained advances after the August rally and on several occasions in the first half of the year.
XRP did not produce a daily close in the $1.56 to $1.60 confirmation band. By the 7 October crypto market analysis, it had fallen below $1.46 and the $1.97 objective was no longer in play. Since late September, the price has traced a descending channel resembling the earlier flag pattern formed in August and September.
Support and averages define risk
The decline took XRP beneath its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.390 and its 200-day EMA at $1.378. Chmiel's chart read treats that break as a return to a downtrend. The token is now within the $1.282 to $1.321 band; Thursday's intraday low of $1.283 reached its lower boundary. The area had arrested the fall in mid-September before the breakout, and had held prices during February to May. It later acted as a ceiling from June through mid-August, when XRP was at its weakest range since 2024.
Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, said the probability of an October Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase settled at about 35% after the CPI report, having briefly risen above 50%. He expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month. Anderson described uncertainty ahead of the next FOMC decision as a drag on liquidity and risk appetite across asset classes.
Maxime Seiler, CEO of STS Digital, offered a positioning-based explanation, pointing to bitcoin put options clustered between $76,000 and $80,000 ahead of Friday's expiry. The analysis and comments were first reported by Finance Magnates.
- If XRP stays above $1.28, the analysis expects a return to the February-to-May sideways range, rather than a fresh trend.
- A daily close below $1.28 could put the June-to-August range back in play, with $1 in view and support spanning $0.986 to $1.009.
- From $1.282 to $1.009 represents a fall of about 21%; from the current price, the drop would be about 23%. A close above the averages around $1.39, about 5.5% above the current price, is identified as the first sign sellers may be losing control.
What this changes for operators
The analysis sets different conditions for an intraday test and a confirmed break: Thursday's $1.283 low touched the support band, while a daily close below $1.28 is the stated trigger for a move towards the lower range. Risk teams monitoring XRP should check whether their alerts and limits distinguish between those events, and which price feed and daily close their controls use.
The report does not specify venues, execution routes, liquidity at these levels or firms' internal thresholds. Operators would need to establish how the chart levels relate to their own exposure limits and reporting before using them in controls. Does the $1.28 threshold match the level used by dealing and risk teams, and are alerts configured to reflect a closing-price condition rather than an intraday touch?
