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Gold traded at $3,903 an ounce on Monday morning, up 0.7%, after Friday's close of about $3,874 broke a floor near $3,941. The fall left the metal at its lowest closing level since October 2025. On Friday, prices dropped more than 3% as weakness in technology shares spread through markets and investors continued to price in another Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
The move puts the price below a level that had held through tests in June, July and August. Gold's record, near $5,600 in late January, preceded a descending triangle on the chart, with a declining line through highs in August, January and March and support below.
The latest close is under that support across three chart intervals. Daily moving averages are also above the market.
For broker risk and operations teams, the break raises practical questions about exposure and controls around a heavily traded instrument. Gold accounted for 91% of CFD activity at ACCM in the first quarter, according to the source.
The report does not quantify current broker client positions, margin changes or execution flows. Operators can check their own exposure and whether price alerts and risk thresholds reflect the levels now being watched.
Chart levels set the downside map
| Reference | Level or context |
|---|---|
| Monday spot price | $3,903 an ounce, up 0.7% |
| Friday close and broken floor | About $3,874; floor near $3,941 |
| Daily moving averages | 50-day near $4,173; 200-day near $4,265 |
| First downside objective | $3,445, 11.7% below Monday's price |
| Weekly references | 200-week EMA near $3,295, 15.6% below spot; 50-week near $4,215 |
| Monthly reference | 50-month EMA near $3,232, about 17% below spot |
The $3,445 area held as a ceiling from April to August 2025, before gold broke higher. It was also the level in the author's June bearish analysis, which had identified $3,440 before a rebound in August put that view on hold. On the monthly chart, October finished below the level that had supported June and July.
Banks and traders read the move differently
Bank estimates remain above the current market. CIBC forecast a fourth-quarter average of $4,500 an ounce, while Helaba's September table indicated $4,800. A Reuters poll published on October 27 put the median average for 2026 at $4,495 and its 2027 counterpart at $4,650. Those projections contrast with the technical levels below spot.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said investors who had bought gold-backed ETFs since July were sitting on losses. Bloomberg data showed holdings declined by six tonnes last week. Hansen also said hedge funds had sold gold futures on a net basis for nine consecutive weeks of Commitments of Traders data.
In emailed comments on Monday, he described technical selling and long liquidation as continuing pressures. The market analysis and competing forecasts were reported by Finance Magnates.
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said the selling might signal that the correction from January's highs was ending. He also suggested gold and silver could be undergoing a full bull capitulation.
October marked gold's second monthly decline in succession, with front-month futures down about 7%. Coinbase Institutional's weekly market commentary put gold about 28% below its January peak.
What to watch next
The defensive case in the chart analysis requires a move back above $3,941, followed by a return over $4,000. Hansen also said a recovery above $4,000 would be needed for a more neutral short-term view. A daily close above that mark after either of this week's scheduled events would make Friday's breakdown a failed one.
The US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, followed by the October payrolls report on Friday. For infrastructure teams, the questions are whether client exposure, alerts and risk limits are positioned for the levels in the table, and what market or account data would trigger a review if volatility rises around either event.
