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Tesla shares advanced 3.8% on Monday, settling at $368.06 on Nasdaq ahead of the company's third-quarter results on Wednesday. The close was 65 cents short of $368.71, a level in the chart analysis by Damian Chmiel that could constrain a further rise. The Nasdaq Composite also gained more than 1%.
Speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up persisted after Tesla showed its Roadster at a SpaceX test site in Texas last Thursday. Tesla filed its proxy statement on Monday ahead of its December 3 annual meeting. Shareholders will vote on whether Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel should retain their board seats.
Tesla's third-quarter vehicle deliveries came in above expectations: 486,532, down 2.1% from a year earlier against Visible Alpha consensus of 469,000. The company is due to report after Wednesday's close and will hold a webcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, according to its SEC filing.
The figures shaping the earnings test
| Measure | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Monday close | $368.06, up 3.8% |
| Third-quarter deliveries | 486,532, down 2.1% year on year; 469,000 expected |
| Revenue forecast | $28.04 billion, down 0.2% year on year |
| Adjusted earnings forecast | 44 cents a share, down 11.8% |
| Free cash flow forecast | Negative $4.09 billion |
| Capital spending forecast | $7.94 billion, compared with $5.79 billion in the second quarter |
| Recent earnings revisions | 18 downward and four upward over 90 days |
| Average analyst price target | $397.83, about 8% above Monday's close |
| Chart resistance levels | $368.71, $377.19 and $382.73 |
| Further chart targets | $432.65 and $451.72 |
What analysts and filings indicate
Barclays analyst Dan Levy sees the possibility of a SpaceX merger announcement before the annual meeting, in an all-stock transaction in which SpaceX would acquire Tesla, Yahoo Finance reported. That outlet cautioned that the share-price rise alone does not establish that the companies are in talks. The proxy filing and merger speculation were also reported by Finance Magnates.
The forecast points to pressure on cash even as vehicle deliveries topped consensus. Visible Alpha's figures put capital spending at $7.94 billion, with expenditure on AI, Cybercab and Optimus. Analyst revisions have tilted down: 18 cuts against four increases in the past 90 days. JPMorgan has a Hold rating with a $415 target, while Cantor Fitzgerald has a Buy rating and a $485 target. The chart analysis places the next targets at $432.65 and $451.72 if the price clears $382.73 on a daily close.
Chmiel's chart tracks Tesla within a broad range between $297.48 and a record near $499, reached in December 2025. After the July sell-off following second-quarter results, the shares rebounded nearly 24%. That move remains inside a rising channel dating from August. A rejection at $382.73 followed by a daily close below the 50-day EMA at $365.47 would put $336.74, the April low, and then $297.48 back in focus.
What this changes for operators
The story identifies no change to a broker's platform, execution venue or trading technology. For operations teams, the immediate checks are whether the earnings release and webcast are correctly represented in event calendars, alerting and risk workflows, and whether timestamps are consistent across the systems that consume them.
With the market watching both earnings and merger speculation, operators can verify how their feeds label company announcements and how event-related controls behave around the release. The report does not specify a vendor integration or a particular control setting, so those details need to be checked against each firm's own setup.
