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ACI Worldwide raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast on 5 November 2026, even as third-quarter revenue fell 12% year over year to $427 million. The payments software provider attributed the decline to the timing of licence renewals, most of which it expects in the final quarter this year.
The new EBITDA range is $550 million to $565 million, up from $545 million to $560 million. It is the third upward revision this year. ACI left its full-year revenue outlook at $1.895 billion to $1.925 billion, while forecasting fourth-quarter revenue of $612 million to $642 million. That would be 27% to 33% above the $481.6 million reported for the same quarter a year earlier.
Renewal timing reshapes the forecast
ACI's outlook places an unusually large share of the year's expected revenue and earnings in the final quarter. The projected revenue implies that 32% to 33% of the annual total will arrive then. The comparable shares were 27% in 2025 and 28% in 2024. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $257 million to $272 million would represent 47% to 48% of the 2026 range, against 32% in 2025 and 34% in 2024.
The third-quarter result was at the top of ACI's own revenue forecast of $417 million to $427 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $97.5 million, above the company's $90 million to $95 million range, but was down 43% year over year. Net income dropped to $32.5 million from $91.3 million. Licence revenue, which is more exposed to renewal schedules, declined 41% to $94.8 million from $162 million.
Payment Software accounted for the revenue shortfall. In that unit, revenue was $216 million, a 24% fall year over year. Its net adjusted EBITDA margin was 49%, compared with 64%. ACI said its 2026 growth expectation for Payment Software remains in the upper-single digits. Biller, which processes consumer bill payments, grew 6% to $210 million.
Recurring revenue from software-as-a-service and maintenance rose 4% to $309 million. New annual recurring revenue bookings increased 86% to $24 million, while new licence and services bookings declined 21% to $64 million. Over the trailing 12 months, annual recurring revenue bookings were down 3% at $79 million.
Connetic rollout begins with one client
ACI's cloud payments platform Connetic reached its first live customer during the quarter, with two additional customers signed up. The company also bought card-switching developer Cranium Ventures to expand Connetic for Cards. ACI and Circle said on 27 October they would test settlement in USDC through Connetic, starting in Colombia. ACI built the central infrastructure for Bre-B, the instant payments scheme launched in 2025 with mandated interoperability.
ACI has contracts with long renewal horizons. Arab Financial Services, a processor owned by 37 banks, signed a 10-year agreement in 2024.
The company also faces competition in stablecoin settlement: Finastra connected its Global PAYplus hub to USDC settlement in August 2025. The results and platform developments were also reported by Finance Magnates.
For the first nine months, operating cash flow rose 26% to $254 million. ACI used $157 million to repurchase 3.4 million shares at an average price of $45.69. It ended September with $219 million in cash and $821 million of debt.
What an operations team should check
Review the renewal schedule behind the fourth-quarter forecast and compare it with billing, licence-entitlement and revenue-recognition records. The earnings outlook depends heavily on renewals landing in the period ACI expects. Ask which contract milestones drive that concentration, and how delayed or changed renewals would appear in internal forecasts and reconciliations.
For teams assessing Connetic, confirm which payment flows are in scope for the first live deployments and the Colombia USDC test. Establish how settlement instructions, reconciliation and reporting will work across the existing payments environment, and what changes the Connetic for Cards expansion may require. The source does not specify the integration or migration timetable, so those details remain questions for ACI and the relevant implementation teams.
