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ASIC said on 30 October 2026 that it does not consider prediction market contracts to be in the public interest for retail clients at present. The statement sets out the Australian Securities and Investments Commission's current view; it does not introduce a ban.
The regulator said these contracts resemble bets: clients take a highly speculative position on an event, with an outcome that can leave them with either a payout or nothing. That structure, ASIC said, is comparable to binary options, which retail clients in Australia cannot trade.
Contract design raises concerns
Some contracts concern events with no clear investment connection, ASIC said. Examples include tomorrow's weather and the result of a sports match, including the margin of victory. The regulator questioned whether such instruments should be presented as investment products.
ASIC also cited risks to market integrity, including the use of confidential information, attempts to manipulate prices and disagreements about how an event's outcome is settled. Under section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001, the regulator must consider the public interest when deciding whether to grant an Australian market licence.
Existing restrictions set context
ASIC said Australians using offshore prediction platforms online do not receive protections under Australian law. Financial service licensees in Australia that provide access to those platforms remain subject to all their Australian licence requirements for that activity.
The regulator prohibited retail sales of binary options in May 2021. In the 13 months before that restriction, 74% to 77% of active retail clients lost money trading them, with combined net losses of A$14 million, according to figures reported by Finance Magnates. ASIC later extended the restriction to 1 October 2031.
Its separate retail use limits run until 23 May 2027. Similar event-contract restrictions apply in parts of Europe and the UK.
Prediction markets are also growing in other markets. In April, Robinhood was selectively listing contracts and steering clear of events where insider information or manipulation would be harder to manage. That month, a soldier was charged by US authorities in a matter described as the first insider-trading case connected to prediction markets.
What to watch next
For brokers and platform operators, the immediate task is to establish whether any product or referral route reaches Australian retail clients. Firms should check how contracts are classified, who provides access and whether existing licence controls cover the activity. ASIC's statement does not specify a new approval process or a deadline for firms.
Operators should also ask how each contract's outcome is determined, what evidence supports settlement and how disputes are handled. The statement identifies integrity and outcome-resolution risks, but does not set out technical standards for platforms. Firms assessing offshore access will need to establish what protections apply to clients and how they meet their Australian obligations.
Risk and compliance teams should check whether their controls address confidential information, manipulation and disagreements about settlement. ASIC has not detailed platform requirements, so operators should establish what records they keep to support an outcome decision and who handles a dispute when a contract is offered through their channels.
