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Brazil's next government can alter the IOF on money sent abroad through presidential decree, BlackOpal co-founder and chief executive Jason Dehni told FM Intelligence before Sunday's presidential runoff. The rate changes do not require a congressional vote, leaving a policy lever that can affect the cost of funding overseas accounts.
The issue reaches a substantial retail audience: Brazil is Latin America's leading source of retail trading interest, and broker and trading-platform websites recorded about 3.0 million organic visits from the country in the third quarter, 44% of the region's total, according to FM Intelligence. The country's IOF framework covers investment remittances and international card spending, while separate rules now treat crypto-fiat trades as foreign-exchange operations.
Dehni sees no current sign of Brazilians shifting money abroad in anticipation of the vote. He said the real's appreciation this year instead points to foreign capital entering Brazil. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are due to meet on Sunday; Bolsonaro is narrowly ahead in recent polls, but remains within the margin of error. Dehni expects the currency's next signal to come from the incoming finance minister's comments on the primary budget balance.
The rates and volumes at issue
| Measure | Figure or timing |
|---|---|
| IOF on investment remittances abroad | 1.1% |
| IOF on international card spending | 3.5% |
| IOF on money entering Brazil | 0.38% |
| Rate change on most outbound transfers | From 0.38% to 3.5% in May 2025; Congress rejected the decrees in June. In July, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued an interim ruling that restored almost all of them. |
| Retail site traffic | 3.0 million organic visits and 44% of the regional total in the third quarter |
| Brazilian listed derivatives activity | About 15 million contracts a day in the first half |
| Chargeback indicators | BlackOpal reported well below 1% of volume; Mastercard uses 1.5% and 100 disputes in a month to start extra monitoring |
| Exchange-rate and policy outlook | 5.01 per dollar on Tuesday; economists polled by the BCB expect 5.13 reais at year-end; Selic at 13.75% |
How broker access and payments differ
Three overseas firms have pursued Brazilian clients through local authorisations over the past 20 months, but none of those routes provides a CFD licence. Plus500 conditionally agreed on Tuesday to acquire Brazilian broker-dealer Guru, a transaction that would bring licences from the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) and the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB). CFI Financial Group received a BCB securities brokerage licence in April to serve local equities and fixed income. XTB received authorisation in February 2025, then referred to local protectionist measures in October and stopped accepting accounts from Brazilian residents in November after its local partnership ended. The listed derivatives market runs through B3.
Card funding presents a separate operational exposure. BlackOpal purchases future card instalments from Brazilian merchants at a discount, making its receivables dependent on settlement arrangements also used when brokerage clients fund by card. Resolution No. 522, introduced by the BCB in November 2025, requires card schemes to pay authorised transactions to merchants in full even if an acquirer fails, and moved all sub-acquirers into central settlement. Dehni described processors settling outside that system as the historical weak point. Chargebacks remain outside the guarantee and are reconciled after settlement, he said. BlackOpal said originators that sell it receivables absorb the chargebacks on its book.
Visa applies the same 1.5% chargeback ratio to its merchant tier in most regions. The decree powers, broker licensing developments and payment-system changes were first reported by Finance Magnates. FM Intelligence found no decree changing IOF rates this year. The central bank's classification of crypto-fiat trades as foreign-exchange operations takes effect from February 2026.
What an operations team should check
Review how Brazilian clients fund accounts and whether payment instructions, fee disclosures and treasury processes reflect the current IOF treatment for investment remittances and international card spending. Confirm how a potential decree-driven rate change would be identified and communicated; the source does not specify a timetable or operational mechanism for such a change.
For card deposits, map which acquirers and sub-acquirers handle each settlement leg, then check where chargeback reconciliation happens and which party absorbs the resulting amount. For local market access, verify which products each authorisation covers and how any proposed route connects to B3-listed derivatives. Dehni's account leaves the practical impact of any future tax change and the scope of each firm's offering to be confirmed with the relevant provider.
